Ukraine: FOCAL POINTS

current situation

●   Russia continues indiscriminate bombing of cities *
see abstract

Russia, which is making a strategic retreat (solely to rearm the army) is actually continuing to bomb the civilian population in the cities.

● turning point   Putin appoints general ‘with record of brutality’ to lead army against Ukraine *
see abstract

“The reports we are seeing of a change in military leadership, and putting a general in charge who was responsible for the brutality and atrocities in Syria, shows that there’s going to be a continuation of what we’ve already seen on the ground in Ukraine and that’s what we are expecting,”

<see CNN article>

● turning point   Putin is preparing a new offensive to create a territorial order in Ukraine that is favorable to him *
see abstract

Fox News contributor Ret. Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg warns Vladimir Putin won’t give up an ‘inch’ of Ukraine <see “t. Gen. Kellogg: This doesn’t look very good” >

turning POINTS (stages of development)

●   crimes against humanity (towards a post-Putin Russia?) *
see abstract

Evidence of massive crimes against humanity committed by Russia in Ukraine is beginning to emerge. This definitively clarifies the fact that it is not possible to enter into treaties with a Russia ruled by Putin.

Putin has therefore become indefensible even by those who previously did not take a clear position: Politicians and companies have switched to take sides against Putin.

International bodies have begun in-depth investigations into the crimes committed by Russia, which appear to be countless.

● turning point   Putin appoints general ‘with record of brutality’ to lead army against Ukraine *
see abstract

“The reports we are seeing of a change in military leadership, and putting a general in charge who was responsible for the brutality and atrocities in Syria, shows that there’s going to be a continuation of what we’ve already seen on the ground in Ukraine and that’s what we are expecting,”

<see CNN article>

● turning point   Putin is preparing a new offensive to create a territorial order in Ukraine that is favorable to him *
see abstract

Fox News contributor Ret. Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg warns Vladimir Putin won’t give up an ‘inch’ of Ukraine <see “t. Gen. Kellogg: This doesn’t look very good” >

● turning point   The turning point: the start of the counterattack phase by Ukraine *
see abstract

Since the end of March, Ukraine has gone into Russia’s counterattack, offering the possibility of ending Putin’s political career, and therefore the war. It becomes possible:

1) a counterattack on Ukrainian territory to free the territories taken by Russia

2) a counterattack on Russian territory to weaken the Russian army (so that it is no longer able to continue fighting).

We recall that a stalled situation would lead to a continuation of Russian domination over Ukraine, preventing the latter from resuming a normal life (and, for example, from accessing the sea).

In this phase Ukraine has, among other things, the need to be supplied with a different type of weapons, because its Army must pass from the guerrilla phase (in which it attacks enemy tanks), to a phase in which it it must attack the concentrations of the Russian Army that are formed near the border to restructure and recover forces (both on the Ukrainian side and on the Russian side).

In this new phase, Ukraine needs airplanes, a shield of “defense” rockets, powerful radars, etc …

MAIN STRATEGIC POINTS

● warning   What the West should understand: better supporto of Ukraine, new type of alliances *
see abstract

The West does not understand that:

● IF UKRAINE DOES NOT WIN THE WAR (does not expel the Russians, and does not rebuild what was destroyed – with the money of the guilty) ALL THE WEST GETS IN A TRAGIC SITUATION (the problem is that the West should have to intervene since the invasion of Chechnya)

● IT MUST FINALLY SUPPORT UKRAINE IN A DECISIVE WAY (intervening both with a better supply of weapons and with stronger economic measures).

● TO ARRIVE A POSITIVE SOLUTION FOR THE WEST, IT IS NECESSARY TO RADICALLY CHANGE THE APPROACH:

go beyond current alliances, and immediately create new international agreements that are more up-to-date with the times.

switch to different ways of helping: there are many possibilities to do more without Putin being able to resort to nuclear weapons – moreover it is necessary to realize that the more Putin is allowed to develop his plan, the stronger the nuclear threat becomes.

possible developments/Warnings

● pillar   Putin is no longer credible as an interlocutor and therefore any agreement cannot be entered into with Russia in the current political order *
see abstract

That is, if Russia wants to dialogue with the world, it must have passed the Putin era. To achieve this, it is necessary to continue to press Russia so that the people in power and the population understand the damage that Putin is doing to them <see GCW article “the unsustainability of the war for Putin”>.

● pillar   The risk of a nuclear war can only worsen if action is not taken in some way (the time factor is decisive) *
see abstract

The problem is that we have always preferred to make choices to have an immediate advantage, without thinking about making decisions for the long term: we did not want to see Putin’s plan to expand Russia by blackmailing other nations, to achieve domination over ‘West (at least cheap.

The longer it takes before final decisions are made, the stronger Putin’s atomic threat becomes.

● warning   The time factor is decisive: it is necessary for Ukraine to effectively oppose the Russian Army on the ground *
see abstract

(it has already succeeded in the first phase of the war), otherwise Putin will invade a part of it (from Dombass to Odessa) making it impossible for the future life of the Ukrainians.

It is therefore necessary for the Ukrainians to be supplied with new weapons in order to resist the attacks of Russia (which, being in financial difficulties due to the measures imposed by the West, cannot afford to prolong the war for long).

If Putin is allowed to implement this second part of his plan to subjugate Ukraine, there is a point of no return, both for Ukraine and for other nations. Yet after almost two months of war, the West continues to waste time without seriously supporting Ukraine in this war.

●   Even the people of power in the West who were on Putin’s side must be ousted from their functions (although now they admit to having gotten rid of) *
see abstract

Now they apologize, but they do it because they are forced: they have nevertheless proved to be “conniving” with Russia, and must be removed from public and private positions of power, otherwise they will resume operating with soft positions towards Putin.
An example is German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

● pillar   It is necessary to see the whole picture of the international situation in order to arrive at a solid solution *
see abstract

We must not lose sight of the problems that a peace treaty that does not take into account other critical situations of global politics can create, such as bringing an advantage to the positions of other autocracies such as China and Iran.

● warning   The Russia-Ukraine war is not won on the field, it is only won when Putin is ousted from power in Russia *
see abstract

For this reason it is not only necessary for the West to support Ukraine (with more aid than the current ones), but it is also necessary to put Putin in a position to be ousted from power in Russia (sanctions, information that makes people understand Russi what is really happening).

<see text “What can be done in the Russia-Ukraine conflict”>

Possible solutions

problems and misunderstandings about the conflict

●   Beyond the current misunderstandings: why we need a radically different approach to the Ukrainian conflict *
see abstract

The Western world lacks awareness of the conflict in Ukraine, and makes mistakes that will pay off dearly.

There is a lack of awareness of what is actually happening, and what needs to be done to solve the problem of the conflict with Putin.

We are leading (unconsciously) Ukraine to destruction, and the entire West to a condition of total submission by the autocratic superpowers Russia and China (and their allies, such as Iran).

If the West wants to save itself it must:

totally change his view of things (his awareness)

radically innovate (make a qualitative leap) in the structuring of methods and tools to maintain the global balance (they need definition of new international organizations and alliances) in order to obtain an effective condition of peace for the near future.

●   warning: Waste of precious time, useless talks, lack of vision and effective programs *
see abstract

Weeks have passed since the invasion of Ukraine and the Western Nations:

► STILL DO NOT DO ENOUGH TO RESOLVE THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE. They continue to waste time allowing Putin’s Russia to regain its strength, and therefore its power over other nations (thus making useless the sacrifices made by Ukrainians who knowingly or not are fighting to defend Democracy from threats from autocratic countries that they want to dominate the world by force).

► CONTINUE NOT TO UNDERSTAND WHAT IS AT STAKE IN UKRAINE FOR THE WHOLE WEST: they have not understood that if Ukraine loses the war (it fails to recover the territories and eliminate forever the threat posed by Putin) the the problem lies not only with the Ukrainians, but also with other Western nations.

► HAVE NO IDEA WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE TO RESOLVE THE CONFLICT.

main KEY POINTS for a solution (musts)

●   nothing must be the same as before *
see abstract

It is necessary to realize that nothing can be the same as before this conflict: today it emerges that the problem arises from a previous situation that has never been modified. see GCW article “What is still possible to do”>

It is therefore necessary to understand how (and why) Governments have maintained for years a situation destined to lead to a tragedy, and then begin to reset global policies from the ground up to create a more stable peace situation (for example, create new forms of alliance that replace those that have totally failed today). <see GCW text “Some criticalities of the peace agreement”>

l

●   need for a peace that solves the problem in a definitive way *
see abstract

To achieve real peace it is necessary not only to restore the conditions prior to the conflict, but also to ensure that a new and better international political equilibrium is created in which it is no longer possible for some nations – basically autocratic regimes – to have leverage to to subdue other nations.

<see GCW text “What to do: the measures that you can (and necessary) take”>

Among other things, it is necessary that Russia undertakes to repay the damage created in Ukraine with its military intervention.

criticality of a solution

● pillar   Putin is no longer credible as an interlocutor and therefore any agreement cannot be entered into with Russia in the current political order *
see abstract

That is, if Russia wants to dialogue with the world, it must have passed the Putin era. To achieve this, it is necessary to continue to press Russia so that the people in power and the population understand the damage that Putin is doing to them <see GCW article “the unsustainability of the war for Putin”>.

●   Identification of a guarantor of the treaty *
see abstract

There can be no peace treaty without a real guarantee. It is therefore necessary to find an able guarantor to be able to intervene if necessary: it must therefore be made up of several nations capable of implementing actions to force the parties to respect the treaty, or with the supply of weapons – if not a direct military intervention – in case the conflict reopens.

●   It is necessary to take into account the global situation, so as not to encourage further conflicts *
see abstract

That is, it is necessary to take into account that there are currently more areas in which other conflicts similar to the Russia-Ukraine one could develop.
That is, in stipulating a peace treaty that puts an end to the current conflict, it is necessary to be sure that this treaty does not end up favoring nations like China and Iran.

● pillar   Need to create new alliances that are more compatible with the era in which we are living *
see abstract

It is a question of defining a new type of alliances to replace the current one, which have totally failed despite the fact that the current conflict has been foreseeable for many years. New alliances that are able to identify the new needs for a real global balance.

It should be remembered that, in order to maintain a condition of effective peace, the League of Nations was created specifically at the end of World War I, and the UN at the end of WW II. Today it is necessary to create a new form of alliance where such organizations have failed.

 

how to get out of the crisis

●   Make truthful information that corrects the current misinformation of Mainstream in Russia *
see abstract

It is crucial that Russia, the population and people of power (Oligarchs, army officers, etc …) realize that they have to bring Putin down in order to get out of the current dramatic situation (due to the damage Putin is directly creating to Russia, imposition of measures by the West, dead soldiers, repression, inability to develop a technological industry, etc …).

●   Stick and carrot: pressure on people of power and the promise of “pardon” *
see abstract

It is necessary to threaten characters with sanctions and processes (Oligarchs, Hierarchs, Generals, etc …) and to promise them a recovery of their wealth and freedom in case they take away the support of Putin (and therefore indirectly contribute to Putin’s downfall, and at the end of the Russia-West conflict).

●   The more time passes (and the Ukrainians can resist alone), the more the risk of a nuclear conflict decreases *
see abstract

THE MORE TIME PASSES (AND THE UKRAINIANS CAN RESIST ALONE), THE MORE THE RISK OF A NUCLEAR CONFLICT DECREASES, as Putin has to let go, and cannot accuse real intervention by the West.

GCW ASSESTMENTS

●   THE POSITION OF CHINA WITH RESPECT TO PUTIN IS BEING COMPLICATED FOR THE LAST ONE, *

see abstract

THE POSITION OF CHINA WITH RESPECT TO PUTIN IS BEING COMPLICATED FOR THE LAST ONE, as China could have benefited from a quick victory by Putin, and therefore a puppet government that ruled the Ukrainians.

But things got bad for Putin after the failure of the war-blitz by the Russian army: apparently the only solution is for Putin to insist on the “annexation” of Ukraine, but even if he succeeds, in the end it will remain only a desertified territory.

And that would be a major problem for China: with Putin’s kind of “victory” the world would begin to think that China could turn Taiwan into a series of ghost towns, and thus begin to protect Taiwan as it did not preventively with Ukraine (moreover, China is beginning to reflect on the consequences it would have to suffer if measures such as those that the West is taking towards Russia were taken against it).

1<see these reflections “ https://youtu.be/Z8wORyZ74Vk?t=208>