An important role in the current market crisis
resides in the
INCAPACITY OF UNDERSTANDING TRENDS:
the World is changing – fast – but the Market and Public Institutions operators are not able to interpret these trends in their essence.
Basically they interpret these new trends with an obsolete mentis form. And this creates conflicts between the changing world and the strategies they produce.
This basically derives from two factors: these operators
● do not want to adapt to the new trends, because they consider it more advantageous to continue to develop the consolidated strategies (in reality their strategies, which can be successful immediately, are destined to fail in the medium term).
● they are not able to adapt to new trends, because they do not have a culture that allows them to understand the essence of these trends.
The prerequisite is that trends are a phenomenon that comes from below for people’s urgent needs (fashions are an “induction” from above, but trends are a bottom-up phenomenon).
Trends are therefore not something that can be manipulated (too much).
Either we adapt to trends
with a correct interpretation
or sooner or later we are thrown out
of the market (or politics).
To interpret the trends it is necessary to take into account that the correct interpretation of trends can not be done through numerical (statistical) analyzes, but only through imaginative intuition.
This is due to the fact that the Trends develop in a non-linear general context (they follow a nonlinear dynamics): that is, in a complex scenario in which the development of the Trend depends on the interaction with other factors also in continuous development introduces in the analysis a number of variables impossible to take into account from a rational logic based on numbers.
See, to understand the validity of truly innovative ideas (for example disruptive innovation), the necessity to understand what will be the scenario in which they will insert (also modified in a disrutpive way) The need to understand the future scenario to understand the value of disruptive projects.
the complexity of the interactive evolution of a complex system
The problem is defined by Science as Butterfly effect. This principle, discovered by the meteorologist Edward Lorenz, indicates how
a small influence in a complex evolving System
can lead to
HUGE CHANGES OF THE FINAL RESULT OF ITS EVOLUTION.
Seen from another point of view, in a complex System where many elements are evolving – the case of the current Market – the result of the global evolution of the System is given by the interaction of many elements.
In order to understand the evolution of the whole system, it should be possible to create a numerical model that is not only able to analyze, moment by moment, the evolution of the single element based on its “predisposition”; but that it is also able to take into consideration that part of change of that single element which is induced by its interaction with all the other elements (which, being themselves subject to the same modes of interactive evolution, change continuously).
That is, Science shows us how it is not possible to make predictions on the evolution of a complex system based on numerical data (mathematical models, statistics, etc …).
This is particularly true in the current Connected Society (in which the products are part of the Connected IoT ). System in which precisely, each element is in continuous interaction with many others.
Beyond the current Analytic Marketing
When analyzing an innovation scenario it is necessary to be able to understand what the next future will be in which new products will be included in the project (innovating means to change things in such a way as to improve the quality of the life of people).
In order to frame innovation in a correct world, it is therefore necessary to realize what the needs of people (and the Society) will be in the near future. That is, we need – at the level of imagination – to be able to project new products that are conceived in a different scenario from the current one (in the case of a disruption phase like the current one, it is a very different scenario).
On the other hand, if one imagines inserting the innovated products into a scenario “as it is now” it is not at all able to make a rational prediction: one can at most develop a narration (as in science fiction novels, where prefigure a future in which horse-drawn carts fly – see J. Verne).
That is, in a phase of disruption like the current one, it is necessary to understand that the scenario of the near future (Market and Society) will be characterized by a radical Paradigm shift that will constrain the Market Players and the political Institutions to equip themselves with new mindset, a New Vision .
To understand the current trends in their real meaning is therefore necessary the imaginative intuition of people able to reason in a disruptive way (lateral thinking).
There are two points to consider: today, to be able to develop successful strategies, it is necessary to
● review the trends (compared to how they are interpreted today). < see “some Trends reviewed by INNOVA / ForeVision” >
● identify new trends not yet taken into consideration by the Market (which are simply a determination of specific meta-trends already known). < see “ForeVision: a review of the trends” >