The problem of the long duration of the Coronavirus 2020 epidemic is, paradoxically, due to the fact that the lockdown has taken place.
In fact, in influenza epidemics from 80 to 95 percent of the population must be immune to the disease to stop its spread. To visualize this, picture someone without immunity as a red dot surrounded by yellow immune dots. If the red dot can’t connect to any other red dots, there is herd immunity. Which means that until a certain percentage of infected people is reached, the epidemic continues to expand (keep in mind that we are talking about COVID-19, an ordinary annual flu, and not a high rate disease of mortality).
The fact is,
with the social lockdown, paradoxically,
the older population was condemned to die.
That is,
with a herd immunity strategy
aimed at protecting the most vulnerable individuals,
there would have been fewer deaths than with the lockdown.
Furthermore, the possibility of resuming the epidemic at the reopening of the company, or at the arrival of the new cold season (in which flu epidemics develop) would have been eliminated.
.
● By David L. Katz – president of True Health Initiative and the founding director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center. He said a long period of shutdown only prolongs the time until the virus spreads.
The United States’ short-term effort to minimize the damage from the coronavirus is not going to win the long-term war against the disease, according to one expert.
Dr. Katz noted that stopping the spread of the virus through social distancing may reduce its impact now, but it cannot be the ultimate answer because unless current restrictions remain in place forever — an economically, socially and politically untenable proposition — the virus will spread sooner or later. <read Article>
● «Herd immunity, which allows a majority of the population to gain resistance to the virus by becoming infected and then recovering, could result in less economic devastation and human suffering than restrictive lockdowns designed to stop its spread, according to a growing group of experts.
“You may be able to reach a point of herd immunity without infection really catching up with the elderly. And when the herd immunity reaches a sufficient number the outbreak will stop, and the elderly are also safe.”
… the Princeton and CDDEP team recommends lifting India’s strict lockdown — which has been extended to May 3 — and letting most of the population younger than 60 return to normal life,» <read Article>
