GCW Focal-Points

KEY POINTS (fasi ….)

interpretation of events

●   THE POSITION OF CHINA WITH RESPECT TO PUTIN IS BEING COMPLICATED FOR THE LAST ONE, *

see abstract

THE POSITION OF CHINA WITH RESPECT TO PUTIN IS BEING COMPLICATED FOR THE LAST ONE, as China could have benefited from a quick victory by Putin, and therefore a puppet government that ruled the Ukrainians.

But things got bad for Putin after the failure of the war-blitz by the Russian army: apparently the only solution is for Putin to insist on the “annexation” of Ukraine, but even if he succeeds, in the end it will remain only a desertified territory.

And that would be a major problem for China: with Putin’s kind of “victory” the world would begin to think that China could turn Taiwan into a series of ghost towns, and thus begin to protect Taiwan as it did not preventively with Ukraine (moreover, China is beginning to reflect on the consequences it would have to suffer if measures such as those that the West is taking towards Russia were taken against it).

1<see these reflections “ https://youtu.be/Z8wORyZ74Vk?t=208>

 

possible developments/Warnings

● pillar   Putin is no longer credible as an interlocutor and therefore any agreement cannot be entered into with Russia in the current political order *
see abstract

That is, if Russia wants to dialogue with the world, it must have passed the Putin era. To achieve this, it is necessary to continue to press Russia so that the people in power and the population understand the damage that Putin is doing to them <see GCW article “the unsustainability of the war for Putin”>.

● pillar   The risk of a nuclear war can only worsen if action is not taken in some way (the time factor is decisive) *
see abstract

The problem is that we have always preferred to make choices to have an immediate advantage, without thinking about making decisions for the long term: we did not want to see Putin’s plan to expand Russia by blackmailing other nations, to achieve domination over ‘West (at least cheap.

The longer it takes before final decisions are made, the stronger Putin’s atomic threat becomes.

● warning   The time factor is decisive: it is necessary for Ukraine to effectively oppose the Russian Army on the ground *
see abstract

(it has already succeeded in the first phase of the war), otherwise Putin will invade a part of it (from Dombass to Odessa) making it impossible for the future life of the Ukrainians.

It is therefore necessary for the Ukrainians to be supplied with new weapons in order to resist the attacks of Russia (which, being in financial difficulties due to the measures imposed by the West, cannot afford to prolong the war for long).

If Putin is allowed to implement this second part of his plan to subjugate Ukraine, there is a point of no return, both for Ukraine and for other nations. Yet after almost two months of war, the West continues to waste time without seriously supporting Ukraine in this war.

●   Even the people of power in the West who were on Putin’s side must be ousted from their functions (although now they admit to having gotten rid of) *
see abstract

Now they apologize, but they do it because they are forced: they have nevertheless proved to be “conniving” with Russia, and must be removed from public and private positions of power, otherwise they will resume operating with soft positions towards Putin.
An example is German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

● pillar   It is necessary to see the whole picture of the international situation in order to arrive at a solid solution *
see abstract

We must not lose sight of the problems that a peace treaty that does not take into account other critical situations of global politics can create, such as bringing an advantage to the positions of other autocracies such as China and Iran.

● warning   The Russia-Ukraine war is not won on the field, it is only won when Putin is ousted from power in Russia *
see abstract

For this reason it is not only necessary for the West to support Ukraine (with more aid than the current ones), but it is also necessary to put Putin in a position to be ousted from power in Russia (sanctions, information that makes people understand Russi what is really happening).

<see text “What can be done in the Russia-Ukraine conflict”>

 

how to get out of the crisis

●   Make truthful information that corrects the current misinformation of Mainstream in Russia *
see abstract

It is crucial that Russia, the population and people of power (Oligarchs, army officers, etc …) realize that they have to bring Putin down in order to get out of the current dramatic situation (due to the damage Putin is directly creating to Russia, imposition of measures by the West, dead soldiers, repression, inability to develop a technological industry, etc …).

●   Stick and carrot: pressure on people of power and the promise of “pardon” *
see abstract

It is necessary to threaten characters with sanctions and processes (Oligarchs, Hierarchs, Generals, etc …) and to promise them a recovery of their wealth and freedom in case they take away the support of Putin (and therefore indirectly contribute to Putin’s downfall, and at the end of the Russia-West conflict).

●   The more time passes (and the Ukrainians can resist alone), the more the risk of a nuclear conflict decreases *
see abstract

THE MORE TIME PASSES (AND THE UKRAINIANS CAN RESIST ALONE), THE MORE THE RISK OF A NUCLEAR CONFLICT DECREASES, as Putin has to let go, and cannot accuse real intervention by the West.

NEWS (METTI A PARTE)

●   Demoralised Russian soldiers in Ukraine have accidentally shot down their own aircraft, sabotaged their own kit, and refused to carry out orders, a British spy chief has revealed. *
● turning point   Putin appoints general ‘with record of brutality’ to lead army against Ukraine *
see abstract

“The reports we are seeing of a change in military leadership, and putting a general in charge who was responsible for the brutality and atrocities in Syria, shows that there’s going to be a continuation of what we’ve already seen on the ground in Ukraine and that’s what we are expecting,”

<see CNN article>

●   Russia reportedly flies nuclear-armed planes into Swedish airspace (SkyNews) *

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