The high criticality of the current situation
derives from the facts that
1) we have forgotten what happened in the past (the tragedies experienced by Hitler and the USSR) - so now the same tragic situations of the past are recurring.
2) for 20 years Putin was allowed to develop his conguist strategies, of which the invasion of Ukraine is only a step towards the goal of geo-political supremacy. Today it is necessary to move in a way that has not been done in the past.
criticality of the situation:
● Possible outbreak of World War III (with nuclear weapons).
● By continuing with Russia’s expansion, Putin can force other nations to submit to his policies.
The stakes: it is not the annexation of Ukraine to Russia, but broader consequences: with a success in Ukraine, Putin may think he will be able to annex other ex-Soviet nations (such as the Baltic countries)
- we did not evaluate well when Putin - in the last 20 years - occupied other sovereign territories (with obvious war crimes). And Ukraine has not equipped itself with appropriate defense tools ("passive defenses", which cannot be considered as dangerous by neighboring states).
- today the West continues to be content with a situation of immediate comfort without seriously intervening to stop the invasion of Ukraine, and therefore the expansion of Putin's power over Europe (although it is possible to take more effective measures to weaken Putin without provoking a new world war).
opportunity: since Putin will never cease the war (in Russia he would be destroyed), the question is “to end his political career” (in Russia) by inducing those who support him today to abandon him (Oligarchs, People, foreign allies).
What are the factors to consider in order to correctly assess the situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
1) it is not the question of a war between Russia and Ukraine, but of how Putin's "expansionism" (military and political) can evolve: if he continued to implement his plans, he would come to politically "subdue" the rest of Europe.
Furthermore, the international situation must be taken into account: Russia is part of the "Axis" with China and Iran, which had joint military exercises before this war.
Western nations do not seem to understand how the future global political condition is being played out in Ukraine (largely compromised for some time, for which much can still be done and is not done).
The underlying problem seems to be that today the memories of the past have been lost: of the dictatorships of the 20th century that for a long time were able to dominate the world bringing misfortunes for all nations (50 million people died to get rid of Nazism <source>, and the Soviet Union caused at least 30 million civilian deaths in Eastern Europe <source>).
Today, that is, the ability to evaluate the cost/benefit factor of a situation seems to have been lost: immediate advantages are chosen (in the illusion of having a condition of peace offered by the idea of not being involved in a war). And we are unable to see the threats of the consequences of such a choice in the long run (exactly as was done with Hitler in the early stages of Germany's expansion.
2) the critical point is that it can lead to a nuclear war. Based on what Putin <source> said, and on his profile, he could make extreme choices.
The problem is that it is now much more difficult to intervene to avert Putin's invasion, and therefore its possible further expansion towards the Baltic countries..
It is therefore necessary to carefully evaluate "what can still be done" (but the problem is that most Nations do not realize that too little has been done, and that the question is the time factor is decisive).
- close the access to the Ukrainian sea.
- introducing irregular militias (war crime) to move to a phase of Urban war ("dirty war"), fighting population and army with guerrilla techniques,
- eventually succeeding in establishing a Puppet-Government.
Goal in the long run:
- medieval sieges strategies: taking people out of hunger (and thirst, cold, darkness, fear, etc ...) to induce them to surrender "to the strongest".
- decimate the population (or make it leave the country) with the Scorched earth tactic (<<see “Scorched earth“- Wikipedia”>> and use of irregular militias to be able to eliminate the part of the population that can resist in a later phase of pro-Russian puppet government.
The Ukraine is forced to fight until the last resource in order not to end up in the condition of being dominated by Russia (it cannot afford to capitulate, since it would have ended forever, becoming what were the "People's Democracies" dominated by force by Soviet Russia).
Ukraine must therefore absolutely avoid "losing the war", prolong the conflict as long as possible (avoid assassination of the President, exhaustion of the morale and physical of the population (due to the bombings, lack of food, electric light, heating, medicines and hospitals, etc ...).
Ukraine must be able to defend itself even in a possible subsequent phase of Urban warfare, and transform the war into a new Afghanistan where the Russians have had to withdraw (or Vietnam for the US).
To understand what are the opportunities for the anti-Russia front, and how we can act in the conflict we must consider that.
● this is not a local conflict (a single war), but a process of expansion of Russia through occupations of territories (ex-USSR) of which Ukraine is only one stage (Putin has already moved to a possible occupation of the Baltic States).
In this process, what is at stake is not the “annexation” of Ukraine to Russia, but broader consequences that affect the whole world: Putin can reach a position of political supremacy over Europe (continuing his plan to annex territories neighboring rulers).
● It is not a question of Putin’s military defeat as he will never admit that the Russian Army has been defeated (in Russia it would be destroyed). Rather, Putin turns the conflict into a "dirty war" (with irregular militias representing yet another war crime).
The question therefore is to “put an end to Purin's political career (in Russia) by inducing those who support him today to abandon him (Oligarchs, People, foreign allies). But to achieve this, it is necessary in the meantime to support the Ukrainians in the war so that the capitulation of Ukraine does not occur, which would probably be the point of no return.
The fact is that the time factor is certain: it all depends on how fast the aid is delivered to Ukraine.
● This is not a war but a Crime against humanity - and therefore Putin can be condemned in court, which would create further problems for him not only with the anti-Russia front, but also with his current allies (it is Proceedings already opened at the International Court of Justice <see original article “International court of justice to fast-track ruling on Russian invasion | Ukraine | The Guardian”>)
No action was taken to stop the expansion of Putin's Russia with the "annexation" of neighboring territories (expansion in progress for 20 years, with evident atrocities committed). And at the beginning of the invasion, not enough was done to stop Russia's military intervention.
► The memory of the past is lost:
● of the path that Hitler took to dominate the world by starting to occupy territories outside Germany with the approval of other nations.
Just as Putin is doing now: Hitler under the same pretexts occupied Austria, Czechoslovakia and then Poland (the latter together with the Soviet Union) before the other nations realized the real danger they were in.
● of how the Soviet Union (of which it is the continuation) has subjugated the neighboring nations without the rest of the world doing anything to stop it (despite the obvious crimes committed against humanity).
See military interns with mass killings in countries such as Hungary, Czechoslovakia,
■ error of assessment of the question of Putin's relations with the world
Based on these (forgotten) experiences, action should have been taken before the invasion of Ukraine began. << see “the things that can be done” >>
For example, Ukraine should have been equipped with a "defense" missile system, capable of intercepting the missiles now used now to destroy cities.
Remember that even if you want to think in terms of "political utilitarianism" (selfish), trying not to be involved in the conflict to have a (illusory) condition of peace, in reality in this way you get a worse condition in the medium-long term.
The underlying problem is that
the West continues to err
by not sufficiently supporting Ukraine in the war.
(it is a question of struggle against time, in which the capitulation of Ukraine can be a point of no return).
Putin cannot lose the war in Ukraine
He will never decide to withdraw from Ukraine, because he would be finished (losing his power in Russia).
That is, Putin can be defeated not in Ukraine, but in a broader scenario in which he is developing an increase in his geo-political power (territorial expansion of Russia, and domination of the nations that become increasingly dependent on Russia for energy).
It is therefore about
act with caution,
but in an effective and timely manner
(it's a fight against time):
► the basic point is not to provoke a war between Russia and the rest of the world (NATO), but also to contain the situation in Ukraine until a "political" (not necessarily "diplomatic") solution becomes possible - the problem is Putin's threat to resort to nuclear war, which could be a bluff, but it is risky to verify (it is therefore necessary to operate non-escalatory aid).
► To operate on a "political" level within Russia, and in Putin's international relations.
In other words, it is a question of operating on the political level of Putin's relations with those who support his power at the following levels:
● INTERNAL POLICY: make sure Putin ended up in Russia.
- pitting the Russian people against him: for example with increasing protests, and loss of electoral consensus (crucial for Putin are the elections in 2024)
- making Putin lose the political and financial support of "court figures" such as the Oligarchs: the result could also be his elimination as did Italy with Mussolini (imprisoned) or Germany with Hitler (an attack that was only successful in part).
● FOREIGN GEO-POLICY: forcing the current allies to abandon Putin's support as has already happened, in part, with China after the first military failures in Ukraine with China.
We recall that the main issue is to prevent the conquest of the capital Kiev (and the assassination of President Zelensky) so that the war between the two armies remains open (it is crucial that Ukraine does not collapse from an institutional point of view).
The time factor is decisive: by delaying the capitulation of Ukraine, Putin loses his power at home (Oligarchs and popular elections of 2024) and the support of allied nations. And he is somehow forced to "abdicate".
In summary, the measures that we can (and must) take are:
● dissemination of correct information in Russia
● sanctions and embargoes
● undermine Russia's relations with its allies
Remember that we are dealing not with a Nation with which it is possible to come to terms (because it has a Parliament that must actually answer to the Citizens), but with a sort of dictator who personally decides how Russia must act. And that Putin boasts that in his KGB profile - in which he was an official - he was described as "a person who is unable to assess the danger". And that to show that he believes in the Russian vaccine, he had her daughter vaccinated, but he refused to be vaccinated.
The fact that Putin threatened to wage an atomic war if anyone tried to stop him may therefore not be a bluff.
What can not be done:
- to intervene directly in the war: initiatives such as that of the establishment of a no-fly zone are very risky, which would involve the use of NATO aircraft to enforce it (interventions such as the sale of Polish aircraft piloted by the Ukrainians are also to be evaluated, that it is not dissible from the procurement of weapons such as anti-tank and surface-to-air rockets).
The problem is that we have not been able to correctly assess what the strategy of "annexation" of confined territories that Putin has been pursuing for 20 years meant.
still today too little is being done
in a situation where the time factor is decisive.
In summary, the situation is that Putin failed the military attack, and was forced to go through a "dirty war": tactics of Scorched earth <see Wikipedia>, and the use of irregular militias.
So the costs become unsustainable for Russia (the army continues to lose vehicles and soldiers), and the West unites against Putin. In this way, a critical situation is created for Putin with the powerful people around him and with the Russian people who suffer a significant decrease in the quality of life due to him (greater poverty, impossibility of internal flights and to go abroad., loss of family members at the front, etc ...).
Much can still be done,
but it is a question of struggle against time.
The fact is that Putin will never withdraw the army from Ukraine (he would have ended up in his homeland), so the only way to stop the conflict between Putin and the West is
see to it that Putin is permanently finished in Russia
(indirectly, without foreign interference in Russian domestic politics).
To do this, it is necessary to work on Putin's weaknesses (which, paradoxically, are his strengths today). That is, it is decisive:
- take action against the people who help him manage his only real strength: the export of gas and oil. If such people abandon him, this money-making machine stops (such people are for example the Oligarchs, whose only goal is to make a life of super-luxury, and subjected to sanctions they would become "mere mortals")
It is necessary to use deterrent measures also against the high offices of the Army, with threats of death sentences.
- push its most important allies to withdraw their support (China, for example, is in trouble because Putin's war can prevent it from developing its plan of world dominance at a non-military level - Market level - and that of "Annexation" of Taiwan, which the West could now help preventively to defend itself).
To achieve this, some possible strategies are:
► development of correct information in Russia so that the Russians understand what problems Putin is creating for them (and that a nuclear war is also their death.
► insist on boarding, sanctions and the International Court (ICC),
In this case it is a question of using the carrot and stick strategy, punishing Oligarchs, Generals and various officials, but also showing the advantages they could have in a post-Putin situation.
<see GCW article “What is still possible to do”>