This article analyzes:
● the current situation as a prerequisite for understanding what is happening.
● what can still be done in the conflict.
● what needs to be done to prevent it from happening again .>
As mentioned elsewhere in this Site, up to this point
no one has been able to correctly analyze and evaluate what the strategy of “annexation” of confined territories that Putin has been pursuing for 20 years meant.
(strategy of which the war on Ukraine is only an intermediate stage).
And still today
we are doing too little
in a situation where the time factor is decisive:
a capitulation of the Ukrainian government would be a point of no return to the situation of independence of Ukraine (and of the possibility of stopping Putin in his strategy of annexation of new independent states).
However, it is always possible to do something by working on Putin’s weak points.
1.a. An overview of the current situation
To understand what is still possible to do, it is first of all necessary to understand what the essence of the current situation is.
In the first place it is good to remember that we are dealing not with a Nation (whose parliament represents the will of the Citizens), but with a character in itself, who has the power to decide anything.
A character who was an agent of the KGB (institution that applied the most ruthless form of repression), who boasts of having been evaluated (negatively) by his superiors as “a person who is unable to assess the danger of a situation”. That to “prove” the validity of the Russian vaccine he had his daughter vaccinated (but he refused to be vaccinated). And that he finally threatened to start an atomic war if anyone tries to stop him.
● in Ukraine: current strategies
The Russia-Ukraine war (like Putin’s other wars) has the objective of making the government of Ukraine capitulate (an objective already achieved in other ex-Soviet Union territories such as Chechnya, regions of Georgia and Ukraine). And then to install a “puppet government” completely dependent on Russia (this strategy had already been used in Ukraine in the past without real armed intervention, but in 2014 the Ukrainian people had rebelled, and it was established a new government actually elected by Ukrainian citizens).
The Russia-Ukraine war (like those of Putin’s other wars) was planned in the following phases:
● military attack, which is actually an operation against the civilian population (failed),
That action serves both to weaken people’s morale and to “clean up the territory” from current inhabitants, and replace them with new Russian inhabitants through an operation of “social engineering” (this is the strategy of “ethnic cleansing” used by the Soviet Union in the 1930s when about 4 million of Ukrainians were killed). <see original article «The Ukrainian Famine: How Joseph Stalin Starved Millions – HISTORY» >
That is, it is not a military conflict, but an attack that mostly aims to hit civilians (killing, and destruction of homes and structures to make life impossible). <see “Scorched earth“- Wikipedia”>
The most that can be said in defense of Putin is that his bombings are indiscriminate operations, in which Russia does not care not to kill civilians, but even in this case it is a crime). <see “The Observer view on Russia’s crimes against humanity in Ukraine | Observer editorial | The Guardian”>
<see “BBC – Ethics guide – War crimes”>
The Russian military attack failed because the Russian Army was totally unprepared: the problem is that previously the Russian Army has never fought a real war – confronting another army – but has always carried out only bombing operations of the Russian army. civilian population, as in Chechnya and Syria (where chemical weapons were also used) <see “Use of chemical weapons in the Syrian civil war – Wikipedia”> <see “First Chechen War”>
● capitulation of the legitimate government, and replacements with the puppet-government (failed)
<see “Puppet state – Wikipedia”>
According to Putin’s plans, the invasion should have lasted a few days, like a classic “Blitzkrieg”. <see “Blitzkrieg – Wikipedia”> But like all “lightning wars” that have lasted over time, this one has practically no chance of being won: even if Russia manages to dismantle the Ukrainian government, it would not have control of the Ukrainian territory, as it would face a continuous and fierce resistance of the Ukrainians who are now fighting in a highly disadvantageous territory for an army (the Cities).
It is recalled that Russia has already had to withdraw from Afghanistan in a similar situation.
The phase of the post-war Russian domination of Ukraine based on urban warfare would therefore be unsustainable for Russia for several reasons:
1) it would be impossible to maintain the justification at the international level of a pro-Russian puppet government in which Putin initially hoped for (the same one with which he “managed” the annexation of Chechnya, Crimea, Donbass and part of Georgia).
2) Russia would lose the support of China which aims to “annex” Taiwan in another way, and does not want there to be any comparison with the Ukraine taken by Putin.
Russia has therefore found itself having to practice in an unforeseen type of warfare, due to factors such as incorrect strategic choices and unpreparedness of its army (some examples: inefficiency of the supply of ammunition, fuel and food for the army; lack of of night vision devices, which Ukrainians are equipped with).
And therefore – despite the problems just analyzed linked to a different type of war – Russia had to transform the lightning invasion into a siege war, of a medieval type, in which people try to take the cities out of hunger (and thirst, cold, dark), and making scorched earth to cause her to surrender. <see “Scorched earth – Wikipedia“>
Note that Hitler’s defeat against Russia stemmed precisely from the fact that his army was prepared for a blitzkrieg, and instead had to face a longer siege war on Stalingrad. (note also that this defeat was the end for Hitler).
To remedy the failure of the military invasion, Putin then applied some strategies that highlighted what he had already planned for the post-war period to install a pro-Russian puppet government. In the territory occupied in the first weeks Putin
1) has installed a pro-Russian Mayor in some occupied cities.
2) it also planned to hold a false referendum to sanction the “Russification” of that part of the territory [news not confirmed], as it has already done in Crimea, where the validity of the referendum for “independence” was not recognized by no country due to strong irregularities). <see “Ukraine: Russia ‘planning referendum’ to ‘legitimise’ control of southern Kherson region | The Independent”> <see “2014 Crimean status referendum – Wikipedia”>
● transition to a “dirty war” and the unsustainability of the war for Putin
The failure of the military intervention strategy (lightning occupation) forced Putin to foresee a different development of the war, that of Urban warfare fought by irregular militias in the service of Russia (which represent a crime against humanity).
The fact is that the kind of war that putin had to wage in this second phase has become unsustainable for Russia for at least two reasons:
1) the costs become unsustainable as the armed conflict continues (taking into account that the restrictive measures taken by the West against Russia have removed the flow of money necessary to sustain a long-lasting war)
This also became evident due to the fact that Putin had to ask for support from China (this is a new geo-political problem).
2) the situation has become unsustainable for Putin even within Russia, due to a strong loss of consensus (to assess the risk that Putin runs we must not only think about the next election in 2024, but also remember how in the History in such cases the people of power surrounding the Leader have taken steps to physically eliminate him – one case is that of Hitler who miraculously escaped an attack by his generals).
The internal problems in Russia caused by the various measures taken against Putin by other nations are, among others:
● for those in power who support Putin today:
– activation of a trial of the International Court of Justice which recognized that Russia in Ukraine commits crimes against humanity: the Generals are afraid of being tried (and executed, like Milosevic and Saddam Hussein).
– the Oligarchs, whose only goal is to live a life of super-luxury, because of Putin are forced to live like poor people full of money (money they cannot use). And, as the case of Abramovich (who betrayed his mentor Berezovsky to go over to Putin’s side) demonstrates, the Oligarchs could betray Putin, abandoning him to the West (a trial for crimes against Humanity like Saddam Ussein and Slobodan Milosevic). Or they could hatch a plot to eliminate Putin.
● with regard to Russian citizens who support Putin today,
– they may no longer support him in the 2024 elections, or put him in trouble with demonstrations of dissent.
The problem is that, however much Putin continues with disinformation, more and more people in Russia perceive the weight of the war: the relatives of the many soldiers killed at the front and of the Citizens who could be forced to go to the front; Citizens who suffer heavily from the damage caused by the restrictive measures of the West.
– Dissidents could be supported by the West to set up a pro-Western government.
3) further international complications, which could cause Putin to lose vital international support.
Putin’s problem is that, having lost the first round of the war in Ukraine, he had to radically change the strategy: from a “military” war (which in any case was already in itself already a crime against humanity) he moved on to practicing a “dirty war” carried out by irregular militias. <see “Unlawful combatant – Wikipedia”>
The fact is that Putin is creating an increasingly embarrassing situation for the allies (the International Criminal Court has also begun to pass sentences against Putin).
In particular, Putin could begin to lose aid from China, on which today he strongly depends: China could feel obliged to distance itself from Putin in order not to be hindered in his plans to dominate the global market, and to “annex” Taiwan without making too much noise.
Premise: to understand what is possible, it is necessary to understand what the Russia-Ukraine conflict is in essence.
The basic question is that for the West it is essential:
1) That Ukraine does not capitulate
It is crucial to understand that this is not a war between two Nations, but a step in history towards the passage to a higher level of the “Cold War”
This is a fundamental question for the West, since if Putin were to obtain the capitulation of Ukraine it would pass to a new level of global “Cold War” (of “armed peace”) in which Putin would pass to a higher level of domination of the West (it would mean that the West accepts the fact of having to surrender in the face of the threat of a nuclear war).
And at that point Putin would continue in his plan of “annexation” of the neighboring nations (ex-Soviet Union).
In other words, it is necessary to understand that if Putin wins the war against Ukraine, there would be a point of no return in the expansion of the geo-political dominance of the Russia-China “Axis”.
So it is crucial for the West to stop considering the immediate advantage obtained in not intervening effectively in Putin’s war on Ukraine as a positive result. Or
the West should go beyond the illusion of peace that comes from not meddling too much in Putin’s war, and evaluate the consequences of this position in the medium to long term.
(to evaluate the consequences from an economic point of view and individual freedoms in a new world order in which China and Russia dictate the law to the West).
2) put an end to Putin’s “reign” in Russia.
The only way to stop Putin’s project – of which the invasion of Ukraine is but one step – is to cause a downfall of Putin at home.
Below we see how all this is possible, provided that the correct strategies are adopted.
What can actually be done
Assessment of the situation with regard to Putin (remember that the current Russia is not an ordinary nation, in which in some way things are decided by the representatives of the citizens, but it is a personal kingdom of Putin in which he decides what he wants – currently there is no one who can, or wants to hinder it).
So the question is not that Russia loses the war, but that Putin loses his power in Russia.
That is, to obtain the neutralization of Putin’s Russia
it is necessary to work on Putin’s weak points
(which, paradoxically, have up to now been his strong points in many cases).
The basic consideration is that the power that Russia has over the West derives from its being a major exporter of oil and gas.
But this is also Putin’s problem: in 20 years he has been satisfied with the proceeds that came from these exports, and has not thought about evolving Russia from the point of view of the production of technological products, to make the country self-sufficient from that point of view. .
And now, in fact, if the West closes its borders with Russia, the latter not only remains without economic resources, but also remains in the condition of inability to produce what it can no longer import from other countries.
The closure of the borders by the West is therefore a serious problem for Russia, which not only drastically reduces the already precarious quality of life of citizens, but also the possibility of operating the military machine.
This dependence of Russia on the West concerns many areas: semiconductors and therefore the production of computers and telecommunication equipment, software (including vital applications for public and private institutions), aviation (without the support of the West in Russia even internal flights disappear). Russia must also import oil refining machinery (essential to produce fuel for internal mobility).
For these reasons, the embargo by the West creates serious damage not only to the men of power (and oligarchs), but also to the Russian people. <see”Give and tech: How technology sanctions can help counter the threat from Russia – European Council on Foreign Relations”>
So let’s see what measures can be taken to stop Putin from developing his plans for the “annexation” of new territories.
With a disclosure on Russian territory of what is really happening it is possible to turn the Russian people against Putin.
One of Putin’s strengths (and therefore weaknesses) is in fact the consensus he has in Russia. This consensus derives from his main skill as a KGB official (disinformation and repression): Putin’s strength lies in the propaganda techniques with which he makes the Russian people believe what is not true.
The fact is that the Russian people are still indispensable to Putin because – despite the fact that he has worked for years changing the laws to consolidate his position of power – he still has to support an election in 2024 before becoming President for life.
It is therefore a question of providing correct information that reports what is actually happening in Ukraine (where many Russians have relatives), and how much Putin is responsible for the problems to which the Russians are subject today.
It is also important that at the international level it is highlighted that this is not a war of Russia, but the “Putin’s war against Ukraine”.
Another strength of Putin is the flow of money that enters his coffers thanks to the export of gas and oil, money without which he could not carry out military actions.
The fact is that the oligarchs are a determinant element in this money supply mechanism, since they are the CEOs of the various companies of this energy supply “multinational”.
By striking the oligarchs in the thing they hold dearest – the possibility of living in luxury – they stop supporting Putin.
And they might even plot to get Putin out of the way.
It is recalled that Putin took power thanks to betrayals: he came to power by betraying the previous President Yeltsin; and got his hands on the money coming from energy management companies by inducing Abramovich to betray his mentor Berezovsky (then the top oligarch).
For these reasons it is necessary to work with:
– sanctions against oligarchs (and officials), who with the seizure of their foreign assets from millionaires would become “mere mortals” (these are people for whom luxury is essential).
With strong sanctions, the Oligarchs would begin to desire Putin’s removal.
<see “Russian oligarchs – Wikipedia”>
We recall that Stalin was killed with a plot of the powerful people around him (who thought that Stalin would soon “purge” them, get killed)
– general sanctions. to induce the People to revolt against Putin (with greater sanctions the Russians would become poorer, and their life would become somewhat complicated: they would no longer have the possibility of going abroad and traveling by internal flights, to use technologies updated, etc …
– embargo: a blockade of oil and gas supplies with which Putin finances the war (such measures have not yet been fully implemented; and should have been implemented already before the invasion of Ukraine – at least there would be had to be tangible threats).
The problem is (1) the cost/benefit assessment by the West (in which them evaluate how risky a choice is based on the actual benefits it can bring); the fact is that for a correct evaluation (2) it is necessary to evaluate advantages and disadvantages especially in the long to medium term, since those that are the initial advantages can actually lead to serious problems in the future.
In the case of the conflict that Putin has started with the Western world,
it is a question of assessing whether avoiding taking certain risks today does not mean having a decidedly worse position towards Russia in the future.
<see Wikipedia “Foreign relations of Russia“>
In fact, China could find itself in difficulty in the international arena with the progress of Putin’s plan for many reasons (this is already happening). China is in fact developing its own plan of domination over the West through a non-military path, and this plan would be severely hampered if the West decided to apply measures such as those currently adopted against Russia to it.
The problem for China is in fact that Putin’s action has achieved the result of uniting the West against the “communist” countries.
China, for example, would like to annex Taiwan, a global industrial power, without bloodshed. And what Putin is doing to Ukraine is putting China in difficulty on this front, as the West could give support to Taiwan that it did not give to Ukraine.
The same goes for Belarus.
● actions by international bodies such as the International Criminal Court which has already expressed in preliminary opinions a condemnation of Putin’s actions as crimes against humanity (the same type of condemnation that led to the execution of two pro-Russian dictators: Saddam Ussein and Slobodan Milosevic).
This also applies to Russian Army officers.
These institutional condemnations should also be aimed at those who are actively helping Russia in the war, such as Belarus: restrictions and threats of condemnation of institutional figures by the International Criminal Court could end Belarus’s support for Putin (which is already happening, with parts of the Bieoloruss army refusing to support Russia).
As mentioned in the “GCW approach” page
the dramatic events of history
are nothing other than the coming to light of errors
that have been committed previously
(for a long time no one seems to have noticed that the choices made in a certain area were wrong). <see “GCW Approach”>
The positive fact in all of this is that History repeats itself: that is, it is possible to analyze the serious problems that we are witnessing by taking historical events that occurred in the past as a reference.
In this regard, it is important to consider that the current problems have developed precisely because previous events had been forgotten, and therefore the (tragic) mistakes that had been committed in the past have been comitted again.
<see original article “Historic recurrence – Wikipedia“>
A case of this type is precisely the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has developed for more than 20 years without the world Leaders (but also the citizens, who are decisive in a Democracy since they have the fundamental power to choose the leaders ) knew – or wanted – to see what was actually happening (what would be the long-term consequences of their apparently “peaceful” choices).
In this case, no one was able to see what the project of domination over the Western world was by a character, Putin, who continued to “annex” (illegally, and with obvious crimes against humanity) neighboring territories (using in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria the same methods used then for Ukraine).
In light of this it is necessary – so that the mistakes committed up to now are no longer committed – to take a step back before trying to develop possible solutions.
it is necessary to stop for a moment to analyze the how,
and above all why,
we have arrived at the current situation.
Which means, in fact,
start trying to understand
the root causes of the problems
that we have now:
because the Leaders either did not know how to see what would later happen due to their choices (in this case the essence of the problem is incompetence); or why they didn’t want to see what was really going on when they chose not to care about the evolving situation.
(in this case it is bad faith, ideological convictions that led the Leaders, to obtain an immediate electoral consensus, to sacrifice the effective well-being of the populations in the long term).
In order not only to remedy the mistakes of the past by finding a solution to the current conflict with Putin, but also to be able to ensure that such mistakes never happen again, it is therefore necessary, among other things, to
● first of all to understand that we are dealing with protracted errors in dealing with Putin: that we should have intervened before today – that is, it is a matter of realizing that we are a contributing cause of what is happening.
● then understand why the various governments (and global government institutions) were unable to predict what happened (or did not want to see).
● but also realize that nothing will ever be the same again, whether Putin wins the showdown with the West, or Putin loses his leadership (in the latter case it will be necessary not to think that the problem has been eliminated, since in fact, the current Russia-Ukraine conflict is nothing more than a very specific determination of a global problem that will continue to develop in other equally dangerous forms).
● It is necessary to make sure that something like this does not happen again.
That is, it is necessary, among other things, to begin to reset global policies and create new forms of alliance that replace those that have totally failed today.
Obviously it is necessary to realize that the underlying problem lies in the various “national policies”: since the West is based on Democracy,
what needs to be corrected is the current Democracy system,
which has ceased to care about the real needs of Citizens,
to develop needs that conflict with them.