Since a car is now used most of the time in the City, a fork of the Automotive sector is expected (in the near future most of the cars will be sold as City car).
The fork will generate:
● CITY CARS: a field – in what will concentrate most of the production – will be the new City Car (or better, City Vehicle), radically different from the current cars.
This is the real disruptive innovation that today requires the Market: an innovation that solves the problems of the traffic congestion.
Because the Big Players of the Market, due to problems of incompatibility of mindset and structures, are not able to develop the radical innovation required today, new Players (born ad hoc, or coming from other sectors) will operate in this sector of the Market: it will be easier to produce this type of vehicle for a “washing machine manufacturer”, or of consumer electronics, rather than for a current automotive player).
But – as illustrated in the LiteMotive <see> project – with the new Personal Sharing mode of use of the City Vehicles, it is possible for the User to move between urban centers with collective transport (cheaper, and more environmentally friendly) and then arrive at their destination to go immediately on the “own” City Car: this will greatly reduce the need to use a cars even for extra urban routes only.
● CLASSIC AUTOMOTIVE: in that context will be developed the current cars (mainly used for extra-urban routes), but according to lines of development of effective disruptive innovation: in the first place the methods of use of the car will be revolutionized, with new forms of ownership and with new practices (like online organized sharing).
For the extra-urban routes, the solutions, more than innovation of the current forms of transport, will be based on the new Social Impact trends such as the Sharing: there will be new solutions such as Bla Bla Car.
And there will be institutional reforms (for example, payment of the “per use” circulation tax, and with rules such as those in Switzerland, where insurance is paid on the plate, which can be moved at will from one vehicle to another).
Automotive innovation – with regard to cars in the current dimension – will be in the smart components (the cars will assume the characteristics of “vehicle as service”).