Disruption is a quantum leap that can not be predicted with statistics. We must not incur the common error of the incumbents: evaluate the future as an evolution of the current condition, since the “History” carries out leap that send upstream the predictions of those who make a “linear” analysis of the evolution of Society and Market.
Forecasts for the future are not made with numbers,
or with statistics,
BUT ARE MADE WITH THE INSIGHTS
that derive from a careful “analysis” of trends (a perceptual, non-numerical analysis).
Understanding in what direction disruptive innovation can go is not easy for those based on “institutional” culture.
For this reason,
who is able to define winning innovative strategies
is a New Comer
that does not have a “structured” mindset
like that of the incumbents,
and therefore has the intuition of a Visionary (capacity that the Managers of incumbents, who in currente Market have replaced the Entrepreneurs, do not have).
The future (disruptive) of the Automotive sector
Disruption in the Mobility sector will develop with a fork in the Automotive sector from which two different sectors will be generated:
► CITY VEHICLES, which will be completely different from the current City Car (today the so-called City Cars, however shrunken, are electrified cars, ie they are vehicles that retain the negative qualities of current traffic).
► NEW GENERATION CARS, whose development will consist in the innovation of its devices in a different direction from the current one. The purpose of this (disruptive) innovation will be Car as a Service.
That is: where today there is an innovation aimed at creating a Value-image for the User, there will be a trend shift that will lead to create elements of the Car able to develop a useful-value for the User (a Value-service, thanks to the smartness incorporated in the components).
See examples of innovation in the direction of Car a a Service on the Innova website:
See also some misunderstandings on the interpretation of Innovation in the Mobility / Automotive sector: