AlixPartners analyzes the Market
incurring the error of framing the problem of innovation of the near future with the tools of the current market.
That is in this analysis it is not taken into account that the Market is undergoing a disruption which requires radically new products compared to the current ones. [https://www.alixpartners.com/media-center/press-releases/alixpartners-global-automotive-industry-outlook-2019/]
In the Report we read that
● “Powertrain costs for electric vehicles identified as being two-and-a-half times higher than for traditional vehicles”
● sales of Electric Cars are extremely scarce.
.
The problem is, in fact, that here we reason using an obsolete Culture to judge the disruptive Innovation situation. we get lost myopistically in the analysis of Data without reasoning upstream on the context being analyzed. <see my Articles on Big Data>
More specifically, we think about a “linear innovation” of the Automobile, when the innovation that the Market requires is a quantum leap towards not only the conception of a radically new vehicle, but an greater disruption in innovation that creates
an offer based not only on a new product,
but on an
INTEGRATED SET OF HARDWARE, SOFTWARE AND NEW PRACTICES
THAT DEFINES A NEW URBAN MOBILITY SYSTEM
.
From this point of view, for example, the cost of the batteries of the current Electric Cars is excessive simply because such vehicles have an excessive weight (the new vehicles, being much lighter than the current ones, need a fraction of the charge required by the current Cars electrical).
And the problem of the shortage of sales of the new Electric Vehicles is simply due to the fact that they are not what the Market now requires! (them are not innovative at all)
.
Obviously the forecasts developed with this mindset have no value. <see Trend Forecasting for the Disruption Age>
