- The need to understand the future scenario to understand the value of disruptive projects
- ˟The need to see the whole picture: integration of products into an ecosystem
- Trend Forecasting for the Disruption Age
To understand how
some “of the future” technologies (for example autonomous vehicles or artificial intelligence) cannot have the expected success in the future, it is necessary to understand the scenario in which they will have to fit into this future.
The fact is that if you can imagine the whole picture ot that scenario, you understand how many elements of it that currently appear to be critical – for which today we try to invent sophisticated solutions like the Autonomous Vehicles – in the near future they will no longer be present.
It must be clear that the problems of a specific sector, such as Mobility, cannot be solved by modifying this element. But, according to the Rules of the Disruptive Innovation <see Decalogue of Rulesof Disruptive innovation>, they are resolved by intervening on the whole system (for example by changing the conception of Mobility to its foundations).
That is, the problems of the various Market sectors (of our Society) will be solved
1) not only by creating a galaxy of new “small solutions” (which in the Disruptive innovation mode are developed bottom-up: by small StartUp or by the Crowd with the new ITC and IoT tools).
2) with an Eco-system in which such specific products can intervene among them (but also with new activities spontaneously developed by Crowd) creating the new form of typical Value of Disrtuptive Innovation <see my Articles on New Value>
For these reasons the Autonomous Vehicles – among other problems:
1) would be substantially useless in the Mobility scenario of the near future.
In the new scenario we know conditions radically different from the current ones. For example the possibilities of remote working and the new modes of production and widespread distribution (at Km 0) will drastically reduce the need for travel.
2) the AVs are however unsustainable, because they are conceived with the obsolete mindset of the current Industry 1.0.
One of the factors of unsustainability derives from the inability to start with a truly disruptive approach, for which we focus on technological solutions, lacking the fundamental objective of Innovation: the improvement of the quality of life of the People (of the inhabitants of the city in general, and not of those who use Mobility as drivers of cars or users of public transport).
From a more purely technological point of view, one of the problems of the Autonomus Vehilce is to be an electrified car, and therefore to inherit most of the defects of the latter (weight and consumption, space requirement, etc.).
As illustrated in other Articles, it is more likely that the new Electric Vehicles will be developed by Joint between Electronic Companies and bycicle manufacturers, than in the Automotive sector.
Of course many of the features now tested on Autonomous Veichles can be used in new types of Vehicles, but without them being made totally autonomous (such as, for example, functions for redistributing the fleet) see my Project LiteMotive: the new future of Mobility>
Autonomous vehicles can also be used in specific contexts, such as micro-shuttle services managed by local communities (in Crowdsourcing mode) to cover the last sections not covered by public transport (trains, couriers).
For an effective assessment of the quality of a product's innovation, the "TrendInsights's Guidelines to Disruptive Innovation" was developed, which offers:
1) an essential description of the meaning and methods of Disruptive innovation, and
2) a methodology for those who want to start a Disruptive Innovation business.
3) a Table summarizing the quality of the Disruptive Innovation for an assessment of business innovation capacity (usable both for developing a new Business and for analyzing Business already in progress).