- The need to understand the future scenario to understand the value of disruptive projects
- The need to see the whole picture: integration of products into an eco-system
- Trend Forecasting for the Disruption Age
To understand the validity of truly innovative ideas
(for example disruptive innovation)
IT IS NECESSARY TO UNDERSTAND
WHAT WILL BE THE SCENARIO
IN WHICH THEY WILL INSERT
(also modified in a disrutpive way)
Obviously, the future scenarios (the development of new trends) that you need to be able to imagine cannot be understood using an obsolete mindset (the current one). <see The wrong interpretation of the Customer Experience >
To correctly frame what the development of the Disruptive Innovation will be, it is first of all necessary to clarify the meaning of this form of innovation. <see Introduction to the Disruptive Innovation: the concept of Innovation  >
In the new Market phase, innovation means improving people’s quality of life. (see for example the concept of “Job-to-be-done” by Clayton Christensen “Competing Against Luck“). That is Disruptive Innovation arises because of a new Demand based on new needs of the Customers (needs and not emotional aspirations anymore of the market in decline). <see The hidden demand (the virtuous circle of innovation)° >
This consideration gives us, among other things, the idea that Disruptive Innovation is not an option. <see Why disruptive innovation is not an option >
to understand what will be
the future scenario of the Society
(in a disruptive way)
IT IS TO UNDERSTAND
WHAT ARE THESE NEEDS THAT
THE DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION WILL GO TO SATISFY
It is to understand that the Disruptive Innovation in progress today – even if still in an initial phase – it will substantially change the scenario in which in the future new products (the current new ideas) will be inserted.
What slows down the development of disruptive innovation today is a mistaken vision of managers, analysts, consultants, journalists, governmental institutions, etc. In fact, they imagine that the new disruptive products will fit into a scenario “as it is now”.
In this way they are not at all able to understand if (how) that product will work in the near future.
A new Vision compatible with Disruptive Innovation
The problem is therefore essentially that the vision of the executive level of the current Companies must be reviewed.
To do this
it is necessary to “deconstruct”
the current Vision of the future.
In all its components.
That is, in order to understand the efficacy of products now conceived by disruptive minds, it is a question of being able to imagine such products in a completely different future scenario from the current one.
To understand the importance of the characteristics of the context in which the disruptive product will be inserted it is necessary to understand that the value of this product is given not so much by the features intrinsic to it; but above all is given by its possibility of interacting with an eco-system of products, services and crowdsourcing activities (it is a holistic Value, which derives from a set of elements linked in an organic way – in which the Value of each element “is superior to the sum of the parts “).
Without this ability to understand how the future scenario will actually be, one can at best develop a narrative about it based on one’s own imagination (as in science fiction novels, where a future is predicted in which horse-drawn carts fly – see J. Verne).
This is what happens today in the Market: in the strategies of the big players, in the media, in the political programs, etc… <see Misunderstanding: the future is not futuristic as one imagines it today>
The need for a turnaround
The radical change of scenery it will happen because, as mentioned, it is not an option.
In other words, we have to understand the difference between a Vogue induced from above and a Trend, which develops spontaneously in the Society due to ineluctable factors that push people to act in a certain way: the ineluctability of disruption is due, first of all, to the fact that the new choices are not an option even for the Customers (they just can no longer buy the products created by the current Marketing, which only satisfy “emotional needs”). <see Business problems: the difference between original and current marketing>
To understand how it is necessary to change, it is necessary to understand how this “objective” need of change for the Market (and for the Government) is due precisely because of the Market politcy (and Government) developed in the last decades. Policies aimed at “inducing” the Customers to purchase products characterized by a very low level of utility for them (with the so-called “impulse purchase”).
The need for change is, in fact, due to the fact that now the Customers, due to the economic crisis, just can no longer afford to buy these products.
The direction of the new Business
must therefore represent
A REVERSAL OF DIRECTION WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENT ONE.
The change of strategies will take place in this way:
1) some new Market Players will be able to understand these new needs of the Market, and therefore will create products that can effectively improve the quality of life of the Customers (ie they will be able to interpret the new Demand, and to actually sell their products).
2) due to the fact that the Incumbents (big players in the market and government institutions) defend the status quo in a compact way, disrutptive innovation will develop at the “bottom” level of the Crowd (in people as Consumers and Citizens).
In the new context, based on completely different principles from the current ones, there will not be a big difference between the Crowd (the Society) and the Market Players: the Businesses will be born bottom-up, that is the new Startups will be created by people who – thanks to the ease of activating disruptive innovation business – from the position of the Customers (who live directly the needs of the Demand) they will turn into Entrepreneurs. <see Recovering the entrepreneur’s role>
Note that the reversal of the current concept of Business is already identified in the trend that sees the integration of the Customers in the Product development process <see Towards a New Marketing (1): beyond the Analytic Marketing, toward a pro-sumer Market >
the key points of the shift paradigm towards disruption
In a phase of disruption like the current one it is necessary to understand that the scenario of the near future (Market and Society) will be characterized by
a radical Paradigm shift that
will engage Market Players and Political institutions to
GIVE NEW STRUCTURES AND MINDSETS, AND A NEW VISION.
Some keypoints are mentioned, both as regards the product and the production methods (developed on the TrendInsights website):
● the current “technological disruption” will involve a real social disruption (new technologies are an enabler of new way of life).
● there will be radical changes in the working methods (example: remote working) <see The new dimension of work> and new methods of Distributed manufacturing and distribution (at Km 0), which will drastically reduce the need for travel. <see Proximity Business>
● the decentralization of the Market will radically change the “production lines”, which will be spread throughout the territory (On Demand production with methods similar to those of the FabLabs / Makers). There will be Value Web instead of the current Value Chain.
● there will be a change in the concept of Property: we move to a new dimension of Sharing and Pooling.